Mistakes in Science
Hasty Conclusion
Intuition
Seeing isn’t Believing
Belief Alters Seeing
Either-Or Thinking
Categorical Thinking
Conceptual Limitation
Crowd Psychology
Simplicity & Consistency
Existential Dread
Conceptual Limitation
Denial
Logical thinking?
we are not wired for logical thinking. If we were, then mathematics would be the average person’s easiest subject in school.
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We grasp large numbers poorly
Without these comparisons, and without the reminder that these failures were consistent with the “faster, cheaper, better” paradigm, in which risks are spread among multiple missions, you would think that 1 billion equals $ 1 trillion.
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产生原因：人脑为了节省认知资源，倾向于过度简化复杂现实
局部当整体：∃x∈S, P(x) → ∀x∈S, P(x)
观察到集合 S 中某些元素具有属性 P，就推断所有元素都具有属性 P。
示例：
“我遇到的三个北京人都很傲慢” → “所有北京人都很傲慢”
“这几个 985 学生能力很强” → “985 学生普遍优秀”
静态当动态：P(t₁) → P(t₂)
某属性在 t₁ 时刻成立，就假设在任意时刻 t₂ 都成立，忽略了时间维度的变化。
示例：
“这个投资策略去年有效” → “这个策略今年仍然有效”
“父母这代人靠勤劳致富” → “现在仍应该只靠勤劳”
相关当因果：Corr(X,Y) → X⇒Y
观察到 X 与 Y 相关，就推断 X 导致 Y，混淆了相关性与因果性。
示例：
“富人都早起” → “早起能致富”
“成功者都读很多书” → “多读书就能成功”
相似当相同：Sim(A,B) → A≡B
A 与 B 在某些方面相似，就认为 A 等同于 B，忽略本质差异。
示例：
“人脑像计算机” → “人脑就是计算机”
“企业像生物体” → “用生物学规律管理企业”